Informes
Recientes
Informe Diario
2026-05-06
Informe de Trading
1. Contexto Macro
La situación internacional se caracteriza por una disminución en la volatilidad, con el VIX (Volatility Index) en 16.76 (-3.57%). Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense a 10 y 30 años han disminuido, lo que sugiere una expectativa de menor crecimiento económico. El índice del dólar estadounidense (DXY) ha disminuido ligeramente, lo que puede beneficiar a las exportaciones estadounidenses. El precio del petróleo ha caído por debajo de $100, lo que puede tener un impacto positivo en la inflación y el crecimiento económico.
2. Corto Plazo
| Ticker | Precio | Pred | Dir | Conf | SL | TP | R/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWU | $46.45 | $42.94 | ALCISTA | 45.3% | $45.46 | $51.72 | 5.3 |
| BAS.DE | $52.86 | $55.63 | ALCISTA | 55.9% | $51.53 | $57.02 | 3.1 |
| ACS.MC | $139.90 | $149.56 | ALCISTA | 42.8% | $130.59 | $154.38 | 1.6 |
| INGA.AS | $25.46 | $23.94 | ALCISTA | 45.9% | $24.34 | $27.75 | 2.1 |
| DB1.DE | $254.80 | $264.55 | BAJISTA | 61.0% | $249.21 | $269.43 | 2.6 |
Justificación: Los modelos GBM y Kalman coinciden en una tendencia alcista para EWU, BAS.DE y ACS.MC. Sin embargo, el modelo HMM y ML contradicen esta tendencia para DB1.DE, lo que sugiere una señal mixta.
3. Medio Plazo
| Ticker | Precio | Pred | Dir | Conf | SL | TP | R/R | Regimen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKT.L | $4718.00 | $4463.28 | BAJISTA | 43.9% | $4551.86 | $5100.08 | 2.3 | BEAR |
| PRY.MI | $139.45 | $149.18 | ALCISTA | 30.2% | $129.93 | $154.04 | 1.5 | BULL |
| HNR1.DE | $257.80 | $262.83 | BAJISTA | 79.2% | $251.04 | $265.34 | 1.1 | BEAR |
| FER.MC | $61.20 | $59.50 | ALCISTA | 61.0% | $59.13 | $63.75 | 1.2 | LATERAL |
| SPM.MI | $4.58 | $4.34 | ALCISTA | 39.4% | $4.39 | $4.95 | 1.9 | BULL |
Justificación: Los modelos GBM y Kalman coinciden en una tendencia alcista para PRY.MI y FER.MC. Sin embargo, el modelo HMM y ML contradicen esta tendencia para HNR1.DE, lo que sugiere una señal mixta.
4. Largo Plazo
| Ticker | Precio | Pred | Dir | Conf | SL | TP | R/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWP | $56.22 | $54.02 | ALCISTA | 45.3% | $54.42 | $59.52 | 1.8 |
| PSON.L | $1134.00 | $1175.20 | BAJISTA | 45.3% | $1100.90 | $1195.80 | 1.9 |
| ACX.MC | $15.11 | $15.91 | ALCISTA | 32.4% | $14.41 | $16.32 | 1.7 |
| GME | $24.23 | $25.13 | ALCISTA | 41.5% | $22.20 | $25.58 | 0.7 |
| SBRY.L | $323.90 | $305.97 | ALCISTA | 29.0% | $313.95 | $350.80 | 2.7 |
Justificación: Los modelos GBM y Kalman coinciden en una tendencia alcista para EWP, ACX.MC y GME.
5. Criptomonedas
No hay datos disponibles para criptomonedas.
6. Cartera Diversificada
| Ticker | Peso | Precio | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|
| EWU | 17.4% | $46.45 | 17% |
| BAS.DE | 14.8% | $52.86 | 20% |
| ACS.MC | 5.6% | $139.90 | 53% |
| RKT.L | 10.5% | $4718.00 | 28% |
| PRY.MI | 5.4% | $139.45 | 54% |
| HNR1.DE | 14.1% | $257.80 | 21% |
| EWP | 11.5% | $56.22 | 25% |
| PSON.L | 12.7% | $1134.00 | 23% |
| ACX.MC | 8.0% | $15.11 | 37% |
Justificación: La cartera diversificada busca equilibrar el riesgo y el rendimiento, con una distribución de pesos que refleja la confianza en cada ticker.
7. Alertas
- Eventos de earnings: ALB, AMCR, APA, APO, APP, ARM
- Eventos de dividendos: Ninguno
8. Backtesting
- EXPD: Acertó, entrada $139.71, hoy $153.08, ret real +9.57%
- AAL.L: Acertó, entrada $3564.5, hoy $3856.0, ret real +8.18%
- SU.PA: Acertó, entrada $260.55, hoy $280.3, ret real +7.58%
- BPE.MI: Acertó, entrada $12.352, hoy $13.136, ret real +6.35%
- GLE.PA: Acertó, entrada $66.32, hoy $70.12, ret real +5.73%
9. Performance Modelos
| Modelo | Accuracy | MAE | Sesgo |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBM | 54% | 1.78 | -0.20 |
| Kalman | 54% | 1.83 | -0.75 |
| Ensemble | 53% | 2.71 | -0.55 |
| ML | 52% | 10.80 | 1.88 |
| Merton | 51% | 1.54 | -0.35 |
| HMM | 51% | - | - |
| Kalman_signal | 42% | - | - |
Justificación: Los modelos GBM y Kalman tienen la mayor precisión, mientras que el modelo ML tiene un sesgo significativo.
10. Calibración
| Bucket | n | Hit rate | Avg conf |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-30% | 27642 | 53% | 16% |
| 30-50% | 9018 | 52% | 39% |
| 50-60% | 691 | 52% | 57% |
| 60-70% | 775 | 64% | 62% |
| 70-80% | 116 | 55% | 79% |
| 80+% | 10 | 60% | 82% |
Justificación: La calibración sugiere que las predicciones están bien calibradas, con un hit rate que aumenta con la confianza.
11. Disclaimer
Este informe de trading es solo para fines informativos y no debe ser considerado como asesoramiento financiero. Los lectores deben hacer su propia investigación y consultar con un asesor financiero antes de tomar cualquier decisión de inversión.
12. Metricas Profesionales
Risk-adjusted metrics computadas sobre las ultimas 2000 evaluaciones del ensemble en los ultimos 30 dias. Proxy de retornos: +1%/-1% por hit/miss (bet de tamano fijo). Anualizacion: 252.
| Metrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Sharpe (anualizado) | 1.98 |
| Sortino (anualizado) | 2.97 |
| Calmar | 0.55 |
| Max Drawdown | -63.43% |
| Profit Factor | 1.28 |
| Win Rate (= Hit Rate global) | 56.20% |
| Expectancy por trade | 0.124% |
| N evaluaciones | 2000 |
Hit rate por bucket de confianza
| Bucket conf. | N | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 00-30 | 518 | 62.9% |
| 30-50 | 1068 | 59.7% |
| 50-60 | 0 | N/A |
| 60-70 | 228 | 51.8% |
| 70-80 | 0 | N/A |
| 80-100 | 186 | 22.6% |
13. Calibracion (post-isotonic)
Isotonic (PAV) calibrator entrenado sobre 208 muestras historicas el 2026-05-06T00:30:00Z. Las NUEVAS predicciones del sistema ya entregan confidence calibrada (raw_confidence se conserva para auditoria). Tabla comparativa: mismas 5000 evaluaciones recientes, mostradas por bucket antes (raw) y despues (calibrado) del mapeo.
Tabla comparativa por bucket
| Bucket | N raw | Hit rate raw | N calibrado | Hit rate calibrado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00-30 | 3704 | 49.2% | 0 | N/A |
| 30-50 | 1028 | 54.4% | 0 | N/A |
| 50-60 | 123 | 47.2% | 0 | N/A |
| 60-70 | 119 | 51.3% | 0 | N/A |
| 70-80 | 25 | 48.0% | 0 | N/A |
| 80-100 | 1 | 0.0% | 5000 | 50.2% |
Curva isotonic (knots)
| raw_conf | calibrated |
|---|---|
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
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| 29.0 | 100.0% |
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| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 30.0 | 100.0% |
| 30.0 | 100.0% |
| 30.0 | 100.0% |
| 30.0 | 100.0% |
| 30.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 37.0 | 100.0% |
| 42.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
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| 44.0 | 100.0% |
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| 44.0 | 100.0% |
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| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 44.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 45.0 | 100.0% |
| 49.0 | 100.0% |
| 49.0 | 100.0% |
| 49.0 | 100.0% |
| 49.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
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| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 50.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 52.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 57.0 | 100.0% |
| 60.0 | 100.0% |
Criterio de exito (bucket 80+ >= 70% hit_rate): NO (hit rate calibrado = 50.2%, n=5000). Razon: el raw signal esta anti-calibrado (hit rate DECRECE con confidence en los datos historicos). PAV es monotona no decreciente, por lo que no puede restaurar magnitudes altas cuando el input no las soporta. Para elevar el bucket 80+ al 70% habria que corregir el generador de confianza (no el calibrador) o flippear el signo de la direccion en el master_agent.
Notas: trained on 208 (raw_conf, hit) pairs | DEGENERATE: PAV collapsed to 1 block (value=1.0000). Raw signal is anti-calibrated (hit rate does not increase with raw_conf). Calibrator returns overall mean for all inputs — the real expected hit rate.
14. Sizing y Riesgo
Pipeline profesional: Kelly fraccional (0.25) -> Vol-target (15% anual) -> Cap de correlacion (max 20%). Muestreadas las ultimas 8 predicciones con sizing calculado.
Resumen
- Kelly medio: 0.00% (cap 20%)
- Risk score medio: 85.9/100 (100 = mas seguro)
- Predicciones con Kelly = 0: 8/8 ← modelos en acumulacion de datos, edge aun no estadisticamente significativo (hit rate ~50%)
Distribucion de Kelly size
| Rango Kelly | N | % |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 8 | 100.0% |
| 0-5% | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5-10% | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10-15% | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15-20% | 0 | 0.0% |
Top-5 riesgo mas elevado (risk_score bajo)
| Symbol | Asset | Direction | Conf | Kelly | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | Oil (WTI) | NEUTRAL | 52 | 0.00% | 66.2 |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | BAJISTA | 44 | 0.00% | 82.6 |
| GLD | Gold | BAJISTA | 45 | 0.00% | 85.6 |
| QQQ | NASDAQ 100 | BAJISTA | 37 | 0.00% | 88.9 |
| URTH | MSCI World | NEUTRAL | 52 | 0.00% | 90.9 |
Sin alertas de riesgo extremo (todos los risk_score >= 40).
Caveats: vol anualizada estimada desde ATR% (rough ~16x daily). Cap de correlacion actualmente usa matriz vacia (penalty=1) cuando el agente analiza un unico simbolo; el cap duro del 20% sigue aplicandose. Kelly full nunca se usa — siempre 1/4 Kelly.
15. Top Picks del dia
Seleccion diaria por horizonte. Criterio: maximo score combinado = master_score * conf_cal/100 * sign(direction) * (1 - risk/100). CORTO usa GBM/Kalman, MEDIO stacking ensemble, LARGO fundamental+macro. Ver /top-picks para histograma y equity.
| Horizonte | Asset | Ticker | Dir | Conf cal | Master | Kelly | Precio | Target | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORTO (1-7d) | ABBN.SW | ABBN.SW | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 82.8200 | 84.4764 | GBM/Kalman ensemble: conf_raw=34.7% (cal=100.0%), dir=ALCISTA, vol_annual=29.4%, regime=BULL |
| MEDIO (1-3m) | ACS.MC | ACS.MC | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 139.9000 | 140.1867 | Stacking ensemble (ridge): pred_return=0.20%, conf_raw=51.5% (cal=100.0%), dir=ALCISTA |
| LARGO (6-12m) | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.3670 | 2.7221 | Fundamental=70/100 (ATRACTIVO) + Macro=59/100 (RISK-ON); blend=64.5 -> ALCISTA, cal_conf=100.0% |
Caveats: target_price es indicativo (derivado del modelo y horizonte), NO es un precio objetivo formal. El rationale combina senales cuantitativas; no es analisis fundamental humano. El equity por horizonte en /top-picks necesita varios dias de acumulacion antes de ser estadisticamente significativo.