🎯 Top Picks
Seleccion diaria por horizonte: CORTO (1-7d) via GBM/Kalman,
MEDIO (1-3m) via stacking ensemble, LARGO (6-12m) via
fundamental + macro. Score combinado:
master_score × conf_cal/100 × sign(dir) × (1 − risk/100).
Argmax por horizonte cada dia a las 12:05.
Picks de hoy
CORTO (1-7d)
AAL.L
ALCISTA
Ticker: AAL.L
Conf cal
100.0%
Master
50.0
Kelly
0.00%
Target
3817.8600
Precio pick: 3743.0000
Rationale
GBM/Kalman ensemble: conf_raw=40.8% (cal=100.0%), dir=ALCISTA, vol_annual=44.7%, regime=LATERAL
MEDIO (1-3m)
AAF.L
ALCISTA
Ticker: AAF.L
Conf cal
100.0%
Master
50.0
Kelly
0.00%
Target
334.0388
Precio pick: 333.4403
Rationale
Stacking ensemble (ridge): pred_return=0.18%, conf_raw=50.9% (cal=100.0%), dir=ALCISTA
LARGO (6-12m)
ABN.AS
ALCISTA
Ticker: ABN.AS
Conf cal
100.0%
Master
50.0
Kelly
0.00%
Target
38.3755
Precio pick: 33.3700
Rationale
Fundamental=85/100 (ATRACTIVO) + Macro=49/100 (NEUTRO); blend=67.0 -> ALCISTA, cal_conf=100.0%
Equity curve por horizonte vs SPY
Equity = cumprod(1 + sign(dir)·realized_return) con cap ±25% por pick. El benchmark es SPY buy&hold desde la primera fecha de picks. Las lineas con menos de 3 picks estan marcadas como muestra insuficiente y no deberian interpretarse como evidencia de performance.
| Fecha | Horiz | Asset | Ticker | Dir | Conf | Master | Kelly | Precio | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3743.0000 | 3817.8600 |
| 2026-05-21T12:05 | mid | AAF.L | AAF.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 333.4403 | 334.0388 |
| 2026-05-21T12:05 | long | ABN.AS | ABN.AS | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 33.3700 | 38.3755 |
| 2026-05-20T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3687.0000 | 3760.7400 |
| 2026-05-20T12:05 | mid | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.2640 | 2.3220 |
| 2026-05-20T12:05 | long | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 298.9700 | 343.8155 |
| 2026-05-19T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3765.0000 | 3840.3000 |
| 2026-05-19T12:05 | mid | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.2300 | 2.3005 |
| 2026-05-19T12:05 | long | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.2480 | 2.5852 |
| 2026-05-18T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3790.0000 | 3865.8000 |
| 2026-05-18T12:05 | mid | AAF.L | AAF.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 325.3000 | 329.5761 |
| 2026-05-18T12:05 | long | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.1720 | 2.4978 |
| 2026-05-17T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3833.0000 | 3909.6600 |
| 2026-05-17T12:05 | mid | AD.AS | AD.AS | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 36.8000 | 37.1825 |
| 2026-05-17T12:05 | long | ABN.AS | ABN.AS | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 32.6300 | 37.5245 |
| 2026-05-16T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3833.0000 | 3909.6600 |
| 2026-05-16T12:05 | mid | ACX.MC | ACX.MC | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 14.5100 | 14.9146 |
| 2026-05-16T12:05 | long | ABN.AS | ABN.AS | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 32.6300 | 37.5245 |
| 2026-05-15T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3830.0000 | 3906.6000 |
| 2026-05-15T12:05 | mid | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3830.0000 | 3834.5194 |
| 2026-05-15T12:05 | long | ABN.AS | ABN.AS | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 32.2700 | 37.1105 |
| 2026-05-14T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 4053.0000 | 4134.0600 |
| 2026-05-14T12:05 | mid | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 4053.0000 | 4057.8677 |
| 2026-05-14T12:05 | long | ABN.AS | ABN.AS | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 32.4300 | 37.2945 |
| 2026-05-13T12:05 | short | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 292.6800 | 298.5336 |
| 2026-05-13T12:05 | mid | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 292.6800 | 293.4413 |
| 2026-05-13T12:05 | long | ADP | ADP | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 213.8100 | 245.8815 |
| 2026-05-12T12:05 | short | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 292.6800 | 298.5336 |
| 2026-05-12T12:05 | mid | AAF.L | AAF.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 403.4660 | 405.8134 |
| 2026-05-12T12:05 | long | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 292.6800 | 336.5820 |
| 2026-05-11T12:05 | short | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 293.3200 | 299.1864 |
| 2026-05-11T12:05 | mid | AAF.L | AAF.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 405.6000 | 406.2177 |
| 2026-05-11T12:05 | long | AAF.L | AAF.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 408.4000 | 469.6600 |
| 2026-05-10T12:05 | short | ABBN.SW | ABBN.SW | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 82.0200 | 83.6604 |
| 2026-05-10T12:05 | mid | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 287.4400 | 287.9252 |
| 2026-05-10T12:05 | long | ABBN.SW | ABBN.SW | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 82.0200 | 94.3230 |
| 2026-05-09T12:05 | short | ABBN.SW | ABBN.SW | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 82.0200 | 83.6604 |
| 2026-05-09T12:05 | mid | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 287.4400 | 287.8850 |
| 2026-05-09T12:05 | long | ABBN.SW | ABBN.SW | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 82.0200 | 94.3230 |
| 2026-05-08T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3827.5000 | 3904.0500 |
| 2026-05-08T12:05 | mid | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.3840 | 2.3875 |
| 2026-05-08T12:05 | long | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.3450 | 2.6968 |
| 2026-05-07T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3883.1899 | 3960.8537 |
| 2026-05-07T12:05 | mid | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.3460 | 2.3495 |
| 2026-05-07T12:05 | long | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3878.5000 | 4460.2750 |
| 2026-05-06T12:05 | short | ABBN.SW | ABBN.SW | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 82.8200 | 84.4764 |
| 2026-05-06T12:05 | mid | ACS.MC | ACS.MC | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 139.9000 | 140.1867 |
| 2026-05-06T12:05 | long | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.3670 | 2.7221 |
| 2026-05-05T12:05 | short | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3564.5000 | 3635.7900 |
| 2026-05-05T12:05 | mid | ACX.MC | ACX.MC | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 14.2300 | 14.2458 |
| 2026-05-05T12:05 | long | ACGL | ACGL | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 93.6500 | 107.6975 |
| 2026-05-04T12:06 | short | EWQ | EWQ | ALCISTA | 50.8% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 45.3700 | 45.8310 |
| 2026-05-04T12:06 | mid | ADM.L | ADM.L | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3429.0000 | 3432.8336 |
| 2026-05-04T12:06 | long | PRU.L | PRU.L | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 1100.5000 | 1183.8629 |
| 2026-05-03T12:05 | short | SPM.MI | SPM.MI | ALCISTA | 50.8% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 4.6060 | 4.6528 |
| 2026-05-03T12:05 | mid | ACX.MC | ACX.MC | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 13.9300 | 13.9558 |
| 2026-05-03T12:05 | long | PRU.L | PRU.L | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 1100.5000 | 1183.8629 |
| 2026-05-02T12:05 | short | CVS | CVS | ALCISTA | 50.8% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 83.2700 | 84.1160 |
| 2026-05-02T12:05 | mid | ACX.MC | ACX.MC | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 13.9300 | 13.9554 |
| 2026-05-02T12:05 | long | BGEO.L | BGEO.L | ALCISTA | 50.4% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 10850.0000 | 11670.2600 |
| 2026-05-01T12:05 | short | CVS | CVS | ALCISTA | 50.7% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 83.2700 | 84.1144 |
| 2026-05-01T12:05 | mid | JASMY-USD | JASMY-USD | ALCISTA | 50.3% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 0.0057 | 0.0057 |
| 2026-05-01T12:05 | long | NEM | NEM | ALCISTA | 50.2% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 111.0900 | 119.4551 |
| 2026-04-30T12:05 | short | MU | MU | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 518.4600 | 523.6964 |
| 2026-04-30T12:05 | mid | ACGL | ACGL | ALCISTA | 49.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 92.7200 | 92.8364 |
| 2026-04-29T12:05 | short | AZM.MI | AZM.MI | ALCISTA | 50.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 36.4300 | 36.7943 |
| 2026-04-29T12:05 | mid | ADS.DE | ADS.DE | ALCISTA | 49.8% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 146.1000 | 146.3818 |
| 2026-04-29T12:05 | long | PSH.L | PSH.L | ALCISTA | 49.7% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 4172.0220 | 4483.0462 |
| 2026-04-28T12:05 | short | ELE.MC | ELE.MC | ALCISTA | 50.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 38.5000 | 38.8850 |
| 2026-04-28T12:05 | mid | ADM.L | ADM.L | ALCISTA | 49.8% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3406.0000 | 3409.5831 |
| 2026-04-28T12:05 | long | PRU.L | PRU.L | ALCISTA | 49.7% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 1128.0000 | 1212.0924 |
| 2026-04-27T12:05 | short | ADI | ADI | ALCISTA | 50.7% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 399.5700 | 403.6216 |
| 2026-04-27T12:05 | mid | ADBE | ADBE | ALCISTA | 50.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 245.4400 | 261.4250 |
| 2026-04-27T12:05 | long | BARC.L | BARC.L | ALCISTA | 50.4% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 427.2000 | 459.4963 |
| 2026-04-26T12:05 | short | ADI | ADI | ALCISTA | 50.7% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 399.5700 | 403.6216 |
| 2026-04-26T12:05 | mid | ADBE | ADBE | ALCISTA | 50.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 245.4400 | 261.4250 |
| 2026-04-26T12:05 | long | BARC.L | BARC.L | ALCISTA | 50.4% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 424.1000 | 456.1620 |
| 2026-04-25T12:05 | short | SPG | SPG | ALCISTA | 50.6% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 201.1600 | 203.1957 |
| 2026-04-25T12:05 | mid | ADM.L | ADM.L | ALCISTA | 50.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3389.0000 | 3500.1151 |
| 2026-04-25T12:05 | long | ACGL | ACGL | ALCISTA | 50.1% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 96.1900 | 103.4187 |
| 2026-04-24T12:05 | short | ADI | ADI | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 403.8800 | 407.9592 |
| 2026-04-24T12:05 | mid | 1INCH-USD | 1INCH-USD | ALCISTA | 50.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 0.0960 | 0.1019 |
| 2026-04-24T12:05 | long | TFC | TFC | ALCISTA | 49.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 51.4000 | 55.2473 |
| 2026-04-23T12:05 | short | BMED.MI | BMED.MI | ALCISTA | 50.6% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 18.5250 | 18.7125 |
| 2026-04-23T12:05 | mid | ADM.L | ADM.L | ALCISTA | 50.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3417.0000 | 3521.7242 |
| 2026-04-23T12:05 | long | SMT.L | SMT.L | ALCISTA | 49.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 1406.5000 | 1511.7765 |
| 2026-04-22T12:05 | short | CSX | CSX | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 43.3700 | 43.8080 |
| 2026-04-22T12:05 | mid | ACX.MC | ACX.MC | ALCISTA | 50.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 13.5600 | 14.7964 |
| 2026-04-22T12:05 | long | IGG.L | IGG.L | ALCISTA | 49.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 1529.0000 | 1643.4457 |
| 2026-04-21T13:39 | short | AAPL | AAPL | ALCISTA | 50.5% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 273.0500 | 275.8078 |
| 2026-04-21T13:39 | mid | Oil (WTI) | USO | ALCISTA | 50.2% | 57.0 | 0.00% | 121.3200 | 124.8126 |
| 2026-04-21T13:39 | long | IGG.L | IGG.L | ALCISTA | 49.9% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 1541.4000 | 1656.7738 |
| 2026-04-20T13:02 | short | UNI.MI | UNI.MI | ALCISTA | 50.7% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 22.3700 | 22.5968 |
| 2026-04-20T13:02 | mid | Oil (WTI) | USO | ALCISTA | 50.6% | 57.0 | 0.00% | 116.0400 | 121.1268 |
| 2026-04-20T13:02 | long | UNI.MI | UNI.MI | ALCISTA | 50.2% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 22.3600 | 24.0437 |
| 2026-04-19T12:05 | short | Oil (WTI) | USO | NEUTRAL | 48.3% | 57.0 | 0.00% | 116.0400 | 116.0400 |
| 2026-04-19T12:05 | mid | Oil (WTI) | USO | ALCISTA | 50.7% | 57.0 | 0.00% | 116.0400 | 121.1268 |
| 2026-04-19T12:05 | long | Bitcoin | BTC-USD | ALCISTA | 48.2% | 37.0 | 0.00% | 75854.5703 | 81338.8557 |