Informes
Recientes
Informe Diario
2026-05-19
Contexto Macro
La situación internacional se caracteriza por una ligera subida en la volatilidad (VIX en 18.35, +2.97%) y un aumento en los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense a 10 y 30 años. El dólar estadounidense se ha apreciado ligeramente (DXY en 99.256, +0.29%), mientras que el precio del petróleo crudo WTI ha disminuido (-4.99%). El sentimiento del mercado es neutral, con un score de -0.060 según el análisis de FinBERT NLP, y el Ãndice de riesgo geopolÃtico se mantiene en 0.43/1.00.
Corto Plazo
| Ticker | Precio | Pred | Dir | Conf | SL | TP | R/R | Justificación |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SVT.L | $2984.00 | $3278.58 | BAJISTA | 58.3% | $2818.13 | $3425.87 | 2.7 | Señal mixta: GBM apunta a subida, pero Kalman, HMM y ML indican bajista. |
| PRY.MI | $146.00 | $133.29 | ALCISTA | 62.2% | $136.99 | $165.06 | 2.1 | Señal mixta: GBM y ML apuntan a subida, pero Kalman y HMM indican bajista. |
| PODD | $147.46 | $159.71 | BAJISTA | 60.6% | $136.45 | $165.83 | 1.7 | Señal mixta: GBM apunta a subida, pero Kalman, HMM y ML indican bajista. |
| EL.PA | $177.60 | $189.83 | BAJISTA | 62.2% | $170.65 | $195.94 | 2.6 | Señal mixta: GBM apunta a subida, pero Kalman, HMM y ML indican bajista. |
| ACN | $168.82 | $157.32 | BAJISTA | 59.2% | $159.22 | $186.06 | 1.8 | Todos los modelos coinciden en una tendencia bajista. |
Medio Plazo
| Ticker | Precio | Pred | Dir | Conf | SL | TP | R/R | Regimen | Tendencia Kalman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | $1407.61 | $1267.11 | ALCISTA | 60.6% | $1237.24 | $1618.36 | 1.2 | BULL | NEUTRAL |
| RL | $326.81 | $296.00 | BAJISTA | 40.6% | $311.79 | $373.02 | 3.1 | BEAR | BAJISTA |
| BLDR | $70.41 | $66.10 | BAJISTA | 59.2% | $66.03 | $76.88 | 1.5 | BEAR | BAJISTA |
| WKL.AS | $65.08 | $70.67 | BAJISTA | 41.4% | $60.91 | $73.46 | 2.0 | LATERAL | ALCISTA |
| WMB | $77.72 | $81.96 | ALCISTA | 61.2% | $75.19 | $84.07 | 2.5 | BULL | ALCISTA |
Largo Plazo
| Ticker | Precio | Pred | Dir | Conf | SL | TP | R/R | Escenarios Reales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEN | $23.45 | $21.49 | ALCISTA | 40.6% | $21.89 | $26.39 | 1.9 | p5: $18.23, p50: $23.45, p95: $30.67 |
| DG | $102.38 | $91.42 | BAJISTA | 34.3% | $96.64 | $118.82 | 2.9 | p5: $83.19, p50: $102.38, p95: $125.59 |
| MNST | $87.09 | $80.32 | ALCISTA | 40.6% | $81.95 | $97.24 | 2.0 | p5: $73.49, p50: $87.09, p95: $104.69 |
| WDC | $482.02 | $459.01 | ALCISTA | 60.6% | $446.42 | $516.54 | 1.0 | p5: $421.91, p50: $482.02, p95: $553.13 |
| NG.L | $1251.00 | $1344.76 | BAJISTA | 40.8% | $1183.57 | $1391.64 | 2.1 | p5: $1123.19, p50: $1251.00, p95: $1419.81 |
Criptomonedas
| Ticker | Precio | Pred | Dir | Conf | SL | TP | R/R | Análisis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSV-USD | $2.48 | $2.24 | BAJISTA | 40.6% | $2.24 | $2.83 | 1.5 | Todos los modelos coinciden en una tendencia bajista. |
| KSM-USD | $4.98 | $4.60 | NEUTRAL | 21.4% | $4.61 | $5.55 | 1.5 | Señal mixta: GBM apunta a subida, pero Kalman y HMM indican bajista. |
| ICP-USD | $2.54 | $2.31 | NEUTRAL | 37.7% | $2.26 | $2.89 | 1.2 | Señal mixta: GBM apunta a subida, pero Kalman y ML indican bajista. |
| ENS-USD | $6.16 | $5.86 | NEUTRAL | 21.4% | $5.66 | $6.61 | 0.9 | Todos los modelos coinciden en una tendencia neutral. |
| LINK-USD | $9.54 | $9.17 | NEUTRAL | 21.4% | $8.95 | $10.09 | 0.9 | Señal mixta: GBM apunta a subida, pero Kalman y HMM indican bajista. |
Cartera Diversificada
| Ticker | Peso | Precio | Dir | Vol | Plazo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SVT.L | 10.2% | $2984.00 | BAJISTA | 44% | Corto |
| PRY.MI | 9.2% | $146.00 | ALCISTA | 49% | Corto |
| PODD | 7.6% | $147.46 | BAJISTA | 59% | Corto |
| SNDK | 4.7% | $1407.61 | ALCISTA | 96% | Medio |
| RL | 12.3% | $326.81 | BAJISTA | 36% | Medio |
| BLDR | 9.1% | $70.41 | BAJISTA | 49% | Medio |
| GEN | 8.5% | $23.45 | ALCISTA | 53% | Largo |
| DG | 10.1% | $102.38 | BAJISTA | 44% | Largo |
| MNST | 9.6% | $87.09 | ALCISTA | 47% | Largo |
| SSV-USD | 5.9% | $2.48 | BAJISTA | 76% | Crypto |
| KSM-USD | 7.6% | $4.98 | NEUTRAL | 59% | Crypto |
| ICP-USD | 5.0% | $2.54 | NEUTRAL | 89% | Crypto |
Alertas
- MACRO_FED: central_bank el 2026-05-19
- MACRO_ECB: central_bank el 2026-05-19
- MACRO_BOE: central_bank el 2026-05-19
- MACRO_BOJ: central_bank el 2026-05-19
- APO: DIVIDEND el 2026-05-19
- ADI: EARNINGS el 2026-05-20
- ADM: DIVIDEND el 2026-05-20
- AFL: DIVIDEND el 2026-05-20
- AMAT: DIVIDEND el 2026-05-21
- CDW: DIVIDEND el 2026-05-22
Backtesting
- TRI: FALLO | Entrada $82.73, Hoy $90.0, Ret real +8.788%, Ret pred -4.558%, Dir BAJISTA (conf 58.3%)
- RHM.DE: FALLO | Entrada $1129.4, Hoy $1227.0, Ret real +8.642%, Ret pred +0.464%, Dir BAJISTA (conf 79.7%)
- FIX: FALLO | Entrada $1992.74, Hoy $1854.4301, Ret real -6.941%, Ret pred +1.837%, Dir ALCISTA (conf 60.6%)
- PWR: FALLO | Entrada $769.99, Hoy $723.03, Ret real -6.099%, Ret pred -2.658%, Dir ALCISTA (conf 60.5%)
- INW.MI: FALLO | Entrada $6.43, Hoy $6.815, Ret real +5.988%, Ret pred -7.369%, Dir BAJISTA (conf 54.8%)
- PRY.MI: FALLO | Entrada $153.15, Hoy $144.35, Ret real -5.746%, Ret pred -8.339%, Dir ALCISTA (conf 61.1%)
- AUTO.L: FALLO | Entrada $486.4, Hoy $513.8, Ret real +5.633%, Ret pred -1.300%, Dir BAJISTA (conf 58.3%)
- VRSK: FALLO | Entrada $162.55, Hoy $171.52, Ret real +5.518%, Ret pred -4.302%, Dir BAJISTA (conf 58.3%)
Performance Modelos
| Modelo | Accuracy | Sesgo | MAE | Evaluaciones |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| merton | 52% | 0.37% | 1.65% | 40486 |
| ml | 49% | 3.53% | 12.18% | 40486 |
| hmm_signal | 49% | - | - | 40486 |
| gbm | 49% | 0.51% | 1.87% | 40332 |
| kalman_signal | 49% | - | - | 40486 |
| ensemble | 48% | -0.30% | 3.31% | 40486 |
| kalman | 46% | 0.68% | 2.29% | 40450 |
Calibracion
- Bucket 00-30%: n=29954, hit_rate=49%, avg_conf=16%
- Bucket 30-50%: n=8876, hit_rate=47%, avg_conf=39%
- Bucket 50-60%: n=1129, hit_rate=45%, avg_conf=57%
- Bucket 60-70%: n=425, hit_rate=49%, avg_conf=63%
- Bucket 70-80%: n=84, hit_rate=70%, avg_conf=79%
- Bucket 80+%: n=18, hit_rate=39%, avg_conf=82%
Disclaimer
Este informe es para fines informativos y no constituye asesoramiento financiero. Los resultados pasados no garantizan resultados futuros. Es importante realizar su propia investigación y considerar su situación financiera antes de tomar decisiones de inversión.
12. Metricas Profesionales
Risk-adjusted metrics computadas sobre las ultimas 2000 evaluaciones del ensemble en los ultimos 30 dias. Proxy de retornos: +1%/-1% por hit/miss (bet de tamano fijo). Anualizacion: 252.
| Metrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Sharpe (anualizado) | 4.43 |
| Sortino (anualizado) | 7.06 |
| Calmar | 4.70 |
| Max Drawdown | -20.09% |
| Profit Factor | 1.74 |
| Win Rate (= Hit Rate global) | 63.45% |
| Expectancy por trade | 0.269% |
| N evaluaciones | 2000 |
Hit rate por bucket de confianza
| Bucket conf. | N | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| 00-30 | 1519 | 69.3% |
| 30-50 | 480 | 45.0% |
| 50-60 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 60-70 | 0 | N/A |
| 70-80 | 0 | N/A |
| 80-100 | 0 | N/A |
13. Calibracion (post-isotonic)
Isotonic (PAV) calibrator entrenado sobre 312 muestras historicas el 2026-05-19T00:30:00Z. Las NUEVAS predicciones del sistema ya entregan confidence calibrada (raw_confidence se conserva para auditoria). Tabla comparativa: mismas 5000 evaluaciones recientes, mostradas por bucket antes (raw) y despues (calibrado) del mapeo.
Tabla comparativa por bucket
| Bucket | N raw | Hit rate raw | N calibrado | Hit rate calibrado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00-30 | 3541 | 42.4% | 0 | N/A |
| 30-50 | 1206 | 42.2% | 0 | N/A |
| 50-60 | 114 | 40.4% | 0 | N/A |
| 60-70 | 118 | 45.8% | 0 | N/A |
| 70-80 | 19 | 68.4% | 0 | N/A |
| 80-100 | 2 | 50.0% | 5000 | 42.5% |
Curva isotonic (knots)
| raw_conf | calibrated |
|---|---|
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
| 29.0 | 100.0% |
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| 70.0 | 100.0% |
Criterio de exito (bucket 80+ >= 70% hit_rate): NO (hit rate calibrado = 42.5%, n=5000). Razon: el raw signal esta anti-calibrado (hit rate DECRECE con confidence en los datos historicos). PAV es monotona no decreciente, por lo que no puede restaurar magnitudes altas cuando el input no las soporta. Para elevar el bucket 80+ al 70% habria que corregir el generador de confianza (no el calibrador) o flippear el signo de la direccion en el master_agent.
Notas: trained on 312 (raw_conf, hit) pairs | DEGENERATE: PAV collapsed to 1 block (value=1.0000). Raw signal is anti-calibrated (hit rate does not increase with raw_conf). Calibrator returns overall mean for all inputs — the real expected hit rate.
14. Sizing y Riesgo
Pipeline profesional: Kelly fraccional (0.25) -> Vol-target (15% anual) -> Cap de correlacion (max 20%). Muestreadas las ultimas 8 predicciones con sizing calculado.
Resumen
- Kelly medio: 5.91% (cap 20%)
- Risk score medio: 76.9/100 (100 = mas seguro)
- Predicciones con Kelly = 0: 5/8
Distribucion de Kelly size
| Rango Kelly | N | % |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 5 | 62.5% |
| 0-5% | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5-10% | 1 | 12.5% |
| 10-15% | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15-20% | 2 | 25.0% |
Top-5 riesgo mas elevado (risk_score bajo)
| Symbol | Asset | Direction | Conf | Kelly | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | Oil (WTI) | ALCISTA | 57 | 7.29% | 57.6 |
| TLT | US 10Y Bond | ALCISTA | 55 | 20.00% | 61.0 |
| EURUSD=X | EUR/USD | ALCISTA | 67 | 20.00% | 61.0 |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | NEUTRAL | 52 | 0.00% | 81.1 |
| GLD | Gold | NEUTRAL | 50 | 0.00% | 85.9 |
Sin alertas de riesgo extremo (todos los risk_score >= 40).
Caveats: vol anualizada estimada desde ATR% (rough ~16x daily). Cap de correlacion actualmente usa matriz vacia (penalty=1) cuando el agente analiza un unico simbolo; el cap duro del 20% sigue aplicandose. Kelly full nunca se usa — siempre 1/4 Kelly.
15. Top Picks del dia
Seleccion diaria por horizonte. Criterio: maximo score combinado = master_score * conf_cal/100 * sign(direction) * (1 - risk/100). CORTO usa GBM/Kalman, MEDIO stacking ensemble, LARGO fundamental+macro. Ver /top-picks para histograma y equity.
| Horizonte | Asset | Ticker | Dir | Conf cal | Master | Kelly | Precio | Target | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORTO (1-7d) | AAL.L | AAL.L | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 3765.0000 | 3840.3000 | GBM/Kalman ensemble: conf_raw=41.2% (cal=100.0%), dir=ALCISTA, vol_annual=45.1%, regime=LATERAL |
| MEDIO (1-3m) | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.2300 | 2.3005 | Stacking ensemble (nnls): pred_return=3.16%, conf_raw=95.0% (cal=100.0%), dir=ALCISTA |
| LARGO (6-12m) | A2A.MI | A2A.MI | ALCISTA | 100.0% | 50.0 | 0.00% | 2.2480 | 2.5852 | Fundamental=70/100 (ATRACTIVO) + Macro=49/100 (NEUTRO); blend=59.5 -> ALCISTA, cal_conf=100.0% |
Caveats: target_price es indicativo (derivado del modelo y horizonte), NO es un precio objetivo formal. El rationale combina senales cuantitativas; no es analisis fundamental humano. El equity por horizonte en /top-picks necesita varios dias de acumulacion antes de ser estadisticamente significativo.